Quantifying the Sam Bradford Trade

Trading for players when desperate never yields the best value. But after Teddy Bridgewater‘s season ended with a knee injury, the Vikings needed an answer at quarterback. Ethan Young analyzes the Sam Bradford trade using his innovative player evaluation model.

In wake of the Teddy Bridgewater injury, the Minnesota Vikings have struck a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles for Sam Bradford, with the Eagles receiving a 2017 1st round pick and a 2018 conditional 4th round pick for their starting quarterback. I put the deal through the Modified Approximate Value Evaluation Model (MAVEM) to see the results. Here is how the trade broke down:

Sam Bradford Trade

These tiers break down as follows: The Modified Approximate Value Per Year (MAVPY) of a player or pick, the MAVPY of the contract associated with said asset, and any compensation pick changes as a direct result of the trade. Assets are multiplied by the length of their contract (first rounders are multiplied by four plus the average of 5th year options used, and all other picks are just multiplied by four). In this case, I gave the Vikings a break and only penalized them for the cap burden he will put on them next offseason, since the salary used on Bradford this year isn’t really usable on other players in any substantive way at this point. This is pretty generous, but it still doesn’t turn out good for the Vikings:

Sam Bradford Trade

To put this in simple terms, Sam Bradford needs to perform like a top 5 QB over the next two years to be worth this deal – even affording the Vikings the cap break. I personally don’t see that happening, and if Bradford plays like he has to this point, he will cost the Vikings 24.14 MAVPY over the next four years. That type of value is equal to having a player like Michael Floyd, David DeCastro, or Dont’a Hightower play for free for the next four years.

While the Vikings were clearly desperate for a QB this year, this is a deal that I can’t see them netting any positive value from.

Follow Ethan on Twitter @NFLDrafter. Also check out his work on a new, more accurate and more versatile player evaluation chart and a better way to predict QB sacks.

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