Last May, Chuck Zodda examined the rule change that pushed extra points from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, and the data analysis showed a likelihood that kickers would connect at a 92.7% rate. Through four weeks of the season, NFL kickers are on track to make 94.1% of the longer extra points. Will…
Confidence is an NFL gambling preview, using statistics, matchup analysis and other metrics to create predictions readers can use at their discretion. Week 15 Misses Reviewed Only Philadelphia failed to deliver last week, resulting in a tidy 1.73-unit profit. The opening kickoff proved an ill omen for the Eagles, as Cowboys placekicker Dan Bailey’s boot…
Confidence is an NFL gambling preview, using statistics, matchup analysis and other metrics to create predictions readers can use at their discretion. Week 14 Misses Reviewed There is nothing like the relaxing and satisfying feeling of going to bed with a 31-7 halftime lead. All Green Bay needed to do was keep on the pressure…
Confidence is an NFL gambling preview, using statistics, matchup analysis and other metrics to create predictions readers can use at their discretion. Teams to Tease in Order of “Confidence” There is one game I love this week: Green Bay hosting Atlanta. I like three others: St. Louis on the road against Washington, Chipadelphia at home…
Confidence is back. John Limberakis makes his triumphant return to Inside The Pylon after a stint on short-term injured reserve. “John is writing as well as ever, really executing his sentences and punctuation well. We’re glad to have him back,” said Managing Editor Mark Brown. The NFL Week 12 Gambling Preview features the picks to…
The successful home underdog strategy in NFL lines helped popularize the use of data analysis in gambling and predictions. In Part I, we looked at basic tenets of home field advantage with a focus on wins, losses, and point differential. As one might expect, Seattle came out on top, performing almost 11 points better at…
In the Week 9 NFL Picks: FC experts go 7-5 in favor of NE over Denver, including the current champ Super Dave. Will Brady & company reward their faith? The week 9 NFL picks also have our beloved Jets go 1-8 and San Diego prevailing over Miami in sunny Florida. How about the rest of…
Upsets galore! Better late than never, here are your Week 7 Power Picks, featuring no less than 8 upset picks, most ever this season. Scroll below for the complete results from last week. Week 7 started off swell, getting the Patriots game correct (ahem). Here are the rest of the Inside The Pylon Power Picks,…
Last week was blowout week in the NFL, which is bad news for teasers. Of the thirteen games played, only two losers covered even with a teaser: Philadelphia and Buffalo. The Eagles needed a miracle just to pull theirs off – with no offensive points! Sadly, I didn’t pick either of those teams and the…
What a week for the Good Doctor! With a stellar 13-3 week, Dr. Geary takes the lead away from Kostya. Ross is bringing up the rear with two consecutive 7-9 weeks. Scroll below for the complete results from last week. Now for week 4, we have another set of upset picks: Dan & Mark going…
“Confidence” took a little vacation last weekend, but we still got some work done. The comments section of the prior Thursday Night Football Preview included these six plays: New Orleans -4 and Denver +12 Risking .5 units to win .455. Philadelphia PK and Baltimore +4.5 Risked .5 units to win .455. Chicago +9 and Philadelphia…
Everyone knows it’s good to play at home. It seems obvious, and the results in every major sport, including the NFL, confirm its importance. Home teams score more points, allow fewer, and win more often. It’s a little less clear why, although there’s no shortage of speculation: sleeping in your own bed; travel fatigue; crowd…
“Confidence” is about knowing the players, the numbers, the history, and the line, putting them all together and delivering predictions on this week’s NFL games. Delving deep into advanced statistics and player grades, “Confidence” helps when trying to beat the experts in Vegas. The Week That Was Denver 24 – Kansas City 17 The combination…
Kostya in the lead with a stellar 10-6 record while Chuck Z bringing up the ugly rear with a 6-10 week. Can CZ get out of the cellar? Can also-rans Super Dave, Dr. Geary, James, and Mark make a push to the top? It all starts with our week 3 power picks. Update Welcome another…
Do Week 1 results predict about Week 2 results? Using football science, statistics, the spread and NFL history can help make sense of gambling and trends. Week 1 is in the books and Week 2 kicked off with a Baltimore Ravens’ win over the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night. Last Monday, we looked at what Week…
Confidence is an NFL gambling preview, using advanced statistics, matchup analysis and other metrics to create predictions readers can use at their discretion. “Confidence” is about knowing the players, the numbers, the history, and the line, putting them all together and delivering predictions on this week’s NFL games. Delving deep into advanced statistics and player…