Confidence: Sunday NFL Gambling Preview

Confidence is an NFL gambling preview, using advanced statistics, matchup analysis and other metrics to create predictions readers can use at their discretion.


“Confidence” is about knowing the players, the numbers, the history, and the line, putting them all together and delivering predictions on this week’s NFL games. Delving deep into advanced statistics and player grades, “Confidence” helps when trying to beat the experts in Vegas.

Thursday Night Review

I had “Confidence” that Pittsburgh +9 was a strong teaser candidate, but things did not go according to plan. As readers of Confidence: Thursday Night Preview learned, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is a high-variance player and that factored heavily into my analysis. Flacco was on his game last night and made the Steelers pay for their turnovers.

The Ravens finished 2011 with the 2nd-highest variance and were only marginally better in 2012, ranking 9th. Last year they were remarkably consistent. Of course, being 5th-lowest means they were consistently bad. Unfortunately for my prediction, the good Flacco (with his 105.0+ QB-rating) Flacco showed up. His successful incarnation only appears 20.8% of the time, but when it does, it’s…

Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
Bill Paxton from Aliens. (Photo courtesy theworldaccordingtoalice.files.wordpress.com)

The only hope for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers was to match the Ravens point-for-point. That hope faded quickly. The first Pittsburgh drive ended with a turnover in the red zone while their next was a three-and-out. On the third Steeler possession they gained chunks of yardage but stalled on the Baltimore 7-yard line. There they chose to kick a field goal rather than risk going for it on 4th and 3. Kicking the FG was the correct decision though the difference in expected value between going for it and kicking the FG is nearly zero. Their final drive of the first half took them to the Ravens 36 before penalties and a 4th and 9 “forced” them to punt. The win probabilities added for going for it or punting in this scenario were nearly identical which makes the decision a coin flip. Because the Ravens started with the ball in the second half, the Steelers should have attempted to convert on 4th down. In reality The Steelers had three chances in the first half to match Baltimore on offense and take a lead. Instead, Pittsburgh limped to the locker room down 10-3 and their uninspired, sloppy play in the second half sealed their fate.

The big question from this game is why the Steelers didn’t try to go deep. Roethlisberger’s longest pass attempt was 19 yards. Of his 36 tries (excluding one throw-away), 72.2% were tossed for 9 yards or fewer. Compare that to Matthew Stafford in Week 1 against the Giants, again omitting any balls obviously heaved away; only 54.8% of Stafford’s passes were thrown that short. The Steelers need to utilize their deep threats more because the talents of Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton are wasted every time they fail to do so. Having an established deep game completely changes the Steelers offensive efficiency. With a deep game the Steelers’ offense runs like a Bentley. Without a deep game, that aforementioned Bentley becomes a Buick; the Steelers should still be able to grind out wins but the offense is far less potent.

Teams don’t cover when they fail to finish drives in their opponent’s half of the field, lose the turnover battle 0-3 (including two in the red zone), and allow the other QB to play like a Hall of Famer (as Flacco did, compiling a 109.3 QB rating). Look out for Baltimore as a variance leader this year and proceed with betting for or against them with caution. Remember, the more variance the less “Confidence”.

Teams and/or Games to Stay Away From: The NFL Gambling Preview

Indianapolis -3 vs. Philadelphia (Monday Night Football)

Two explosive teams, both with holes on their lines. Both already look like they will again end up in the Top-5 for highest variances of the year. I have this line as Philadelphia -1. As a teaser, PHI +9 looks like a nice candidate, if only these teams weren’t so volatile. There will not be a Monday Night Football preview as not all games earn “Confidence”.

Reluctant call: Philadelphia +3.

Carolina -2.5 vs. Detroit

This game is Detroit’s first real challenge for new head coach Jim Caldwell. I don’t think much of him, so I want to see how his team fares against solid competition on the road before I get on-board the Lions’ bandwagon.

Reluctant call: I like Detroit doing enough on both sides of the ball to cover in a close one. Detroit +2.5.

Teams to Tease in Order of “Confidence”

Denver -12 (-6) vs. Kansas City

This one is simple and needs little non-statistical analysis. The Broncos are one of the NFL’s best teams and are playing at home. The Chiefs are a bottom ten team this year, were a below-average team on the road last season, and already have injuries piling up. Denver has the advantage on both lines of scrimmage along with better skill personnel than Kansas City, and they feature future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. As for the Chiefs, taking snaps from center is the thoroughly mediocre Alex Smith.

Like Charlie Chaplin’s lovable tramp, Smith dresses for the part but can’t seem to live up to the image. He tries hard and is, by all accounts, a good teammate. However, like the tramp, Smith is pitiable. His lack of arm strength and his spotty decision-making render him an adequate game manager at best. The bottom line is Smith simply doesn’t have the necessary skills to be a consistently successful starting NFL QB.

Charlie Chaplin in The Tramp. (Photo courtesy 3.bp.blogspot.com)
Charlie Chaplin in The Tramp. (Photo courtesy 3.bp.blogspot.com)

DVOA ranks the Broncos 9th overall at 29.0%, with the defense 10th at -10.5% and the offense 5th at 30.8%. DAVE has the Broncos 1st overall at 24.5%, with the defense 6th at -3.5% and the offense 1st at 23.7%.

DVOA puts the Chiefs 29th overall at -50.6%, with the defense 25th at 19.1% and the offense 29th at a whopping -39.1%. DAVE ranks the Chiefs 27th overall at -11.7%, with the defense 26th at 3.6% and the offense 27th at -9.1%. By the eye test and by the numbers, this is a big edge to the Broncos.

The Call: This is a high “Confidence” pick. Broncos -6.


Seattle -6 (PK) at San Diego:

Last year the Seahawks had only a small drop-off in performance on the road. The Chargers performed evenly last year both at home and on the road so location will likely not be a factor here. It comes down to matchups and the Seahawks have favorable ones on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball:

The Seattle offensive line is a mixed bag. It includes a pair of solidly above-average starters in left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger, a rookie at right tackle in 2nd-round 2014 draftee Justin Britt, and two below-average starters at the guard positions in James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy. Despite their limitations they still project to have success against the Chargers’ awful front seven. Aside from Melvin Ingram and Dwight Freeney the San Diego starters are below average as a group. The Chargers’ secondary is stronger than last year’s unit, but I expect the lack of a San Diego pass rush to give Russell Wilson and his receivers too much time.

When the Chargers Have the Ball:

San Diego’s offense is their strong suit but they will be opposed by the best defense in the league. The Seahawks’ front seven should overwhelm the Chargers’ O-line, especially replacement-level right guard Johnnie Troutman. The individual skill position matchups make this game a must-see. In the passing game, there will be a chess match pitting the Chargers’ wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs against Seattle’s linebackers, safeties, and corners. I like the Seahawks’ chances here considering the advantage their pass rush figures to hold over the Chargers’ offensive front.

DVOA ranks the Seahawks 1st overall at 61.0%, with the defense 8th at -18.3%. Because DVOA isn’t adjusted, it is important to note that means they had the 8th best defense based on Week 1 even though they faced a quality opponent in Green Bay. The Seahawks’ offense is 3rd at 43.3%. DAVE has Seattle 2nd overall at 20.8%, with the defense 1st at -11.6% and the offense 8th at 7.5%.

DVOA ranks the Chargers 26th overall at -37.6%, with the defense 21st at 9.6% and the offense 27th at -33.2%. DAVE puts the Chargers 9th overall at 5.8%, with the defense 28th at 5.9% and the offense 3rd at 11.3%. The Chargers had a bad Week 1 against a tough NFC West defense. Have “Confidence” that this occurrence becomes a trend in Week 2.

The Call: This is a high “Confidence” pick. Seattle PK


New Orleans -6.5 (+0.5) at Cleveland:

Before we even begin to get into this analysis, the following needs to be said: New Orleans had one of the smallest statistically significant home/road splits in 2012. Their drastic home/road splits in 2013 should be seen as an aberration. Their defense didn’t have a strong showing in Week 1 against the Falcons but much of that can be explained by the Saints’ questionable defensive schemes. This New Orleans team is much better defending the pass than what they showed against Atlanta. As I explained last week, the Browns’ only success against the Steelers came while running the no-huddle in the second half of the game. That approach should not work against the Saints.

When the Saints Have the Ball:

This offense is deep and loaded. Their front line is a top-10 unit, Drew Brees is a top-5 quarterback, and their skill position players are numerous and deadly. If the Saints have a weakness it is their lack of a reliable #2 receiver, but look for Kenny Stills to emerge in that role starting this week as he returns from a quad injury. The Browns’ front seven is average aside from three of the linebackers in their 3-4 alignment: near-elite RILB Karlos Dansby, solidly above-average ROLB Jabaal Sheard, and, if he bounces back, Paul Kruger at LOLB. The Browns’ secondary has a diverse mix of talent levels. Cornerback Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner are on the cusp of elite status at their positions. Like many first-year players at the position, rookie cornerback Justin Gilbert struggled in his opening game. Cleveland’s other starting defensive backs, free safety Tashaun Gipson and slot cornerback Buster Skrine, are both below-average players. The Browns simply do not have the personnel to stop the Saints.

When the Browns Have the Ball:

Cleveland has the foundation of an offensive line in place. Left tackle Joe Thomas is elite. Rookie left guard Joel Bitonio performed well in week one. Alex Mack is a perennial All-Pro candidate at center. Right guard John Greco and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz are average starters and the only soft spot on the line. The Browns have only two above-average players on offense who aren’t part of the O-Line: suspended wide receiver Josh Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron. Their starting running back, Ben Tate, is average but has a chance to be more than that with help from the O-Line. Replacement level starting quarterback Brian Hoyer struggled against the Steelers and is not the long-term answer for the Browns. The Browns skill players on offense, aside from Gordon, Cameron, and Tate are all below average or rookies.

The Saints run a 4-3 defense and all members of their defensive line are above average starters lead by near-elite left-end, Cameron Jordan. The Saints linebackers are the polar opposite; all are below-average starters overall and they are particularly vulnerable in pass coverage. The linebacking problem lead to conservative zone schemes underneath, with safeties playing 10-15 yards deep. Even that did not help as they were ruthlessly picked apart by the Falcons. Fortunately for the Saints, the Browns do not have enough weapons or skill in the passing game to exploit this weakness.

The Saints are stocked at safety with second year pro Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd. Byrd is either the best free safety in the game or he is in the top three. However, cornerback is a question-mark for the Saints. Keenan Lewis is near-elite and slot corner Corey White is average with a low ceiling. Patrick Robinson is the other Saints’ starting corner and he is coming back from a serious leg injury. He was inconsistent before his injury and had a poor Week 1. Right now, he is a below average starter and a major deficiency in the Saints’ secondary.

Because the Saints personnel is weak in coverage they rely almost entirely on their pass rush to slow down the opponent’s aerial attack. To stand any chance, the Browns need their offensive line to stifle the Saints pass rush. But, even assuming the Browns can muster 24+ points on the Saints, it will not be enough.

DVOA rates the Saints 23rd overall at -27.2%, with the defense 32nd at 53.3% and the offense 8th at 18.8%. DAVE rates the Saints 6th overall at 8.4%, with the defense 23rd at 1.3% and the offense 5th at 9.3%.

DVOA rates the Browns 17th overall at -1.6%, with the defense 27th at 26.3% and the offense 6th at 28.7%. DAVE rates the Browns 28th overall at -12.4%, with the defense 29th at 6.6% and the offense 24th at -6.3%.

The Browns DVOA in rushing ranks 3rd at 27.8% and they rank 11th in passing at 29.8%. Those kinds of crazy numbers demand context. In 2013 the Browns finished the season ranked 22nd in rushing at -7.0% and 25th in passing at -9.2%. The top team in rushing was the Eagles at 23.6%, which was double the number put up by the second ranked Chiefs’ 11.1%. In other words, expect the Browns to regress significantly.

The Call: This is a game where the statistical advantage slightly exceeds the scouting advantage. Because of that I only have medium-high “Confidence” in this pick. Saints -0.5


Tennessee -3.5 (+2.5/+3.5) vs. Dallas:

Tennessee was my pick to win the AFC South this year. Tennessee played much better at home last year and Dallas was unreliable on the road. Both offenses have the advantage over the opposing defenses when they have the ball, however, and the Titans should have the bigger edge due to the Cowboys’ defense, or utter lack thereof.

When the Titans Have the Ball:

The Titans have excellent starters at left tackle, Michael Roos and left guard Andy Levitre, a below-average center Brian Schwenke, an average right guard with a high ceiling Chance Warmack, and a future controversy at right tackle. The starting right tackle, Michael Oher is below-average and the Titans have 2014 1st round pick Taylor Lewan waiting in the wings. The Titans’ weak right side of the line is mitigated by the terrible Cowboys’ defense. Notice that I didn’t write “mitigated in part.” The Cowboys defense is truly that bad. Aside from Henry Melton and the possible resurgence of Rolando McClain, there is not a single above-average player on defense. I expect Kendall Wright to thrive against the Cowboys secondary. The Cowboys have one chance to stop the Titans: if the Cowboys can exploit the weak right side of the Titans O-line they might be able to pressure Jake Locker into poor decisions. Even that is no sure bet for Dallas as Locker has the ability to scramble and make plays outside the pocket.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball:

The Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Left tackle Tyron Smith earned every dollar of his eight-year $98M extension. The weak spot in the line is left guard Ronald Leary. The Cowboys might experiment again with Mackenzy Bernadeau if Leary continues to struggle. Travis Frederick had a strong rookie year and should continue to improve at center. There are high expectations for 1st round pick Zack Martin at right guard. Doug Free’s performance has vacillated over the years from below-average to above-average. The challenge for the Cowboys o-line will be to contain three good Titan pass rushers: Akeem Ayers and Derrick Morgan from the edge and Jurrell Casey up the middle. The Cowboys receiving corps is top-heavy featuring wide receiver Dez Bryant and veteran tight end Jason Witten. Look for the Cowboys and DeMarco Murray to run the ball more this week. Because the Titans will look to lock down Witten and Bryant, the Cowboys secondary receiving options Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams might be Tony Romo’s main targets. This is not a good matchup for the Titans’ defense; the combination of the Cowboys strong offensive line, quarterback, and three high quality skilled players in Bryant, Witten, and Murray should be able to score frequently against the Titans unless they can counteract the Cowboys dominance on the offensive line.

DVOA rates the Titans 4th overall at 54.0%, with the defense 3rd at -40.7% and the offense 9th at 18.5%. DAVE rates the Titans 16th overall at 0.2%, with the defense 17th at -0.4% and the offense 16th at 0.7%.

DVOA rates the Cowboys 30th overall at -68.7%, with the defense 31st at 39.9% and the offense 25th at -18.7%. DAVE rates the Cowboys 31st overall at -13.8%, with the defense last in the league at 9.5% and the offense 18th at -3.2%.

I do not believe the Titans are that good overall and the Cowboys offense is not that bad, but the Titans have the statistical advantage.

Final note: Paying a small premium to get this at +3.5 might be advisable depending on the cost, though if the vig is greater than .22 I would advise against it.

The Call: This is another game where the statistical advantage exceeds the scouting advantage. Because of that I only have medium “Confidence” in this pick. Titans +3.5

Closing Thoughts:

Week 2 is a difficult week as the season is still young and there will be more upsets. If you’re feeling brave, tease the Patriots. I suspect they will rebound on the road against the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings; the Patriots would have been my next teaser choice. I also like the Bills chances as their personnel on both sides of the ball matchup favorably against the Dolphins. The advanced stats sites predict it will be a close game, and teasing a PK is not an ideal betting strategy so I’m not going to recommend it, but my model is slightly more bullish on the Bills in this game so I look forward to seeing what happens. When in doubt be conservative this week.

IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE: There’s no “Confidence” in the Monday Night game; it is one of the games to avoid this weekend. This column will return on Thursday to recap the week that was and to look at the Thursday Night clash featuring Tampa Bay at Atlanta.

John Limberakis is Inside The Pylon‘s gambling analyst, using statistics and trends to break down the betting lines, and finding the winning edge to wager with confidence.

64 thoughts on “Confidence: Sunday NFL Gambling Preview

  1. Something I think is super important in the Seattle/SD game (which I teased) is that Seattle played last Thursday night, while San Diego played that weird 11pm ET MNF game. That is a big difference between the two teams, Seattle is pretty lethal heading into games with a lot of time to study their opponent.

  2. Something I think is super important in the Seattle/SD game (which I teased) is that Seattle played last Thursday night, while San Diego played that weird 11pm ET MNF game. That is a big difference between the two teams, Seattle is pretty lethal heading into games with a lot of time to study their opponent.

    That’s definitely a factor taken into consideration. It will be more important as the season goes on.

  3. General consensus is that I suck at life but there’s no doubt I’m better than most at gambling on the NFL. I always like to let a week or two pass before making a determination. Tommorow is the day of reckoning.

    Let’s do this.

  4. The Browns will be without their three best skilled position players on offense. 
    WR Josh Gordon – suspension
    RB Ben Tate – sprained knee
    TE Jordan Cameron – shoulder
    New Orleans will have a soft landing for their defense to rebound in week 2. If they can’t stop this anemic offense then we know New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs to make some serious adjustments. 

  5. New Orleans will have a soft landing for their defense to rebound in week 2. If they can’t stop this anemic offense then we know New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs to make some serious adjustments. 

     
    You are too kind. If New Orleans can’t stop this Cleveland offense, they are just plain bad. I like Hoyer and root for him to succeed but trying to score points without those players is going to be very, very hard.

  6. I only need New Orleans to win. I hope Hoyer and any other non highly-picked QB have great days. The odds are stacked against those guys. Was there any QB more enjoyable in his prime than the patron saint of long-shots, Kurt Warner? Hoyer’s former Patriot status is just another plus.

  7. My head scratcher of the week is NO favored by 6 on the road. Cleveland +6 is the official HRB Play of the Week.

     
    I agree and I think that’s the sucker line. They are begging for people to take NO. Watch for a late Cleveland score to cover the spread here. Cleveland could even win the game.

  8.  
    I agree and I think that’s the sucker line. They are begging for people to take NO. Watch for a late Cleveland score to cover the spread here. Cleveland could even win the game.

    Great minds.

  9. I only need New Orleans to win. I hope Hoyer and any other non highly-picked QB have great days. The odds are stacked against those guys. Was there any QB more enjoyable in his prime than the patron saint of long-shots, Kurt Warner? Hoyer’s former Patriot status is just another plus.

     
    I’m confused by your column, in that you’re only picking games as teasers. That seems like an unfair way to pick games. Basically you’re giving yourself 6 points in every game, but that is not the way teasers work, obviously, because it’s multiple games. One loss and the whole bet is a loss.
     
    How are you going to track your results?

  10. John,

    I rarely bet anything but teasers and tiny parlays. The parlays are typically for fun but last year I hit quite a few 5 play parlays. Last year by mid season roughly 82% of my teasers hit. If you randomly put together teasers you need each teaser to hit 72.36% of the time to break even. 72.36% x 72.36% = 52.36%. The typical casino return on a teaser is if you risk 1 unit you can win an additional .91 units. I have to win 52.36% of my plays to break even at that rate. The average 6 point teaser hits 68% of the time. If my system gets back on track that’s a comfortable margin for success. If 80% of teasers teams hit you will get a return of 22.24% per week (on average).

  11. Teasers and Parlays are both very fun (and I bet a lot of them!) but if you are serious about gambling to make money they are bad (teasers) and very bad (parlays) with the major exception of teasing through the key 3 and 7 numbers (so 7.5-8.5 favorites, 1.5-2.5 point underdogs) preferably getting favorable juice (i.e even money 2-teamers, which are fewer and farther between these days)
     
    At even money you can almost bet any six point teaser that goes through key numbers blind of the teams and turn a profit).  If you cant tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7, you are 100% better off betting the games straight up in the long run, the extra points dont make up for the fact that you lose by going 1 and 1.  Stanford Wong’s Sharp Sports Betting is a good place to get started (those teasers through the key numbers are known as basic strategy or “Wong” teasers) if you are more interested on the math details, he might have a website with an updated database of score results as well, its been 18 months or so since I last checked for the database.
     
    This is a really basic overview.
    http://www.onlinefootballbetting.net/wong-teasers/
     
    Correlated parlays and correlated teasers (i.e. tease a massive underdog with the over) are also an exception, but books will decline the most obvious ones so they are hard to find.
     
    Outside of those exceptions, doing teasers and parlays are really just burning expected value.  There’s nothing wrong with playing them (I do it a ton!) because they’re fun, but the idea that they are more profitable than picking games straight up is a sportsbook inspired illusion.
     
    As careful as you need to be about small sample sizes careful extrapolating small sample sizes on teasers because there is (to use a professional term) a shit ton of variance, especially if you are betting 3 teamers and up.  You can go a long time before hitting that week where you whiff on 3 of 6 teaser legs, but it is painful as fuck when it comes (looking at you Bears, Lions, and Saints)
     
    You also have to be careful extrapolating lines to teaser lines as if the juice is shaded at all they won’t match up (i.e. 7.5 line wont tease to 1.5), some online books will shade to make sure you can’t through key numbers, and more will shade or feed you a sharp line if you bet too successfully at the teasers.

  12. John,

    I rarely bet anything but teasers and tiny parlays. The parlays are typically for fun but last year I hit quite a few 5 play parlays. Last year by mid season roughly 82% of my teasers hit. If you randomly put together teasers you need each teaser to hit 72.36% of the time to break even. 72.36% x 72.36% = 52.36%. The typical casino return on a teaser is if you risk 1 unit you can win an additional .91 units. I have to win 52.36% of my plays to break even at that rate. The average 6 point teaser hits 68% of the time. If my system gets back on track that’s a comfortable margin for success. If 80% of teasers teams hit you will get a return of 22.24% per week (on average).

     
    So, your column is intended to tell us what games you like in teasers, but not how to bundle them together?
     
    Of the 5 or 6 games you listed, how did you actually bet them?

  13. Good analysis, Stich. I see Wong teasers as a bonus. Recently though Wong teasers tend to just break even and a lot has changed in scoring since his analysis. 72.5% of wong teasers hit from 2000-2011. That’s better than 68% but it’s still not ideal.

  14. Being able to bet blind and turn a profit is pretty close to as good as your going to find while paying a 5% vig, so I think that 72% number was actually pretty awesome.  Sigh, arbitrage never lasts in the gambling world.
     
    Completely agree that its harder to beat the game just by betting Wong’s blind today, your scoring point and books shading the lines after getting killed on Wong teasers work against you.  
     
    Even Wong teases now being break even tells us that we should be betting teasers close to never if we’re gambling with the objective of maximizing $$$ and not for fun (I assume all of us here are doing the latter)

  15. Do you want to know my plays? My plan was to give 5 to 6 teams I liked a week and let the reader pick his or her pairs based on what was most persuasive to them.

    My plays last week:
    I had 3 teasers all at +6. 1) Denver-Seattle (missed), 2) Pittsburgh-New Orleans (missed), and 3) New England- Buffalo (hit).
    For each bet I wagered .5 units to win .455. So I ended up losing .545 units. I can track my overall bet record and the % of teams that hit their end of the teaser.

    Keep the feedback coming! Thank you.

  16. You don’t see those nice even returns very often although there are exceptions (instead of moving a line the casino will increase the reward by lowering the vig).

  17. 5% vig? I’m assuming 9 to 11% on average. This obviously depends on the casino and the day.

    You could get 2 team Wong’s at even money for a long time so there was basically no vig on those.  The 5% was just a simplified description based on the standard -110 juice line on a purportedly 50/50 proposition.

  18. All of my teasers were -110. I do everything online though. It would be interesting to see what the vigs are at the actual casions around the US. Does anyone routinely pay more or less than -110 for a 2 team 6 point teaser?

  19. I linked to an overview

    I think a getting to know the odds might make an interesting piece. A gambling dictionary might be needed as well. Thanks for the link stich!

  20. I’m seeing a ton of lines this weekend that fall within the Wong teaser territory, so I just threw a couple in for short money.  I did 3 team, 6 point teasers, which pay +156 at my site.
     
    San Diego +8.5 @ Atlanta
    Giants +8 vs. Houston
    Auburn -2.5 @ Kansas State
     
    and
     
    UCONN +8 @ South Florida
    Wake Forest +8.5 vs. Army
    North Carolina +8.5 @ East Carolina
     
    We’ll see how it goes.

  21. I’m seeing a ton of lines this weekend that fall within the Wong teaser territory, so I just threw a couple in for short money.  I did 3 team, 6 point teasers, which pay +156 at my site.
     
    San Diego +8.5 @ Atlanta
    Giants +8 vs. Houston
    Auburn -2.5 @ Kansas State
     
    and
     
    UCONN +8 @ South Florida
    Wake Forest +8.5 vs. Army
    North Carolina +8.5 @ East Carolina
     
    We’ll see how it goes.

    Oklahoma -7 at WVU , seems like a good candidate for a teaser

  22. Do you want to know my plays? My plan was to give 5 to 6 teams I liked a week and let the reader pick his or her pairs based on what was most persuasive to them.

    My plays last week:
    I had 3 teasers all at +6. 1) Denver-Seattle (missed), 2) Pittsburgh-New Orleans (missed), and 3) New England- Buffalo (hit).
    For each bet I wagered .5 units to win .455. So I ended up losing .545 units. I can track my overall bet record and the % of teams that hit their end of the teaser.

    Keep the feedback coming! Thank you.

     
    I understand now. Thanks for the explanation. I didn’t see the New England or the Buffalo pick on the site but I did see the Titans pick. ;)
     
    Thanks again, I know gambling is really tough and that’s why I don’t gamble on sports. But you do great work. Gambling took over my life for a while, so I just had to stop. (it wasn’t the money, it was the insanity every weekend) But I love reading about it and following along. Thanks again!

  23. I think I like Atl, Phi, and NO if you can get them under 7 and 10 and if I had to bet it NE.  Miami and Carolina, sort of a coin flip.  Could change later.
     
    What am I actually going to do this week after the discussion above?  Probably bet a shit ton of teasers :P

  24. I spent about two hours puring through the games to get into what went wrong. That New Orleans defense is shockingly bad.

    Yeah, I don’t get it. They had the 4th-best defense in the league last year in both scoring and yardage (10th in DVOA). This year they are 31st in scoring 30th in yardage, 31st in DVOA. As far as I know, they didn’t suffer any significant losses to the unit in the offseason or to injury, and they replaced Malcolm Jenkins with Jairus Byrd. I thought they would have an above-average defense, but instead they are garbage.

  25. The Grantland podcast said in week one that they played safeties way off and didn’t play physical with WRs off the line and the Falcons just crushed against that scheme. Not sure if they did that against Cleveland but would be real curious.

  26. NO home and NO away are like different franchises

    Exactly. NO in Atlanta vs Ryan and NO at home playing in a desperate game vs Cassell and the Peterson-less Vikings are two completely different animals.

  27. The Grantland podcast said in week one that they played safeties way off and didn’t play physical with WRs off the line and the Falcons just crushed against that scheme. Not sure if they did that against Cleveland but would be real curious.

    FO says Vacaro has been bad and is a main culprit. Also suggests more three safety looks.

    The achillies heel for New Orleans defense is their terrible LB personnel and play. Rob Ryan played his safeties back in order to compensate for horrible LB coverage problems. Against the Browns I saw similar issues. The blown assignments were alarming and there were too many of them.

  28. The home/road splits for the Saints didn’t exist in 2011 and 2012. Do you really think 2013’s outlier like level split will continue? They are a dome team so it always will be there but it shouldn’t be to this degree. Statistically New Orleans outplayed the Browns (dvoa).

  29. http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win
     

    A $5 bet was poised to turn into a $100,000 payday before the Indianapolis Colts melted down Monday night.

     

    A bettor in the Delaware Sports Lottery picked 14 consecutive NFL winners against the spread over the weekend. His 15th pick would have turned the $5, 15-team parlay card into a $100,000 winner. Unfortunately, they took the Colts to beat the Philadelphia Eagles by more than a field goal.

  30. Ats 2010: 4-4 home 3-5 road
    Ats 2011: 8-0 home 4-4 road
    Ats 2012: 4-4 home 4-4 road
    Ats 2013: 7-1 home 1-7 road

    I’m not expecting last year type splits, but I do expect a real split and I don’t think the market has adjusted enough in recent years

  31. I’d at least hope the guy got his hands on some cash and made a day trip to Vegas to hedge with 15-20k or so.

     
    Agreed. When you’re looking at turning 5 bucks into 100k and it’s a Monday night game, he’s an idiot for not hedging as much as he could have.

  32. If anyone is curious, of the 6 Wong teasers I played this week, I’m currently 1-0 after hitting on Auburn.  I’ve got UConn on the ropes right now though, getting 8, they are down 14-7 and pinned deep in their own end to start the fourth. 

  33. Yeah, so umm 2-0 now after a ludicrous back door cover by UConn.   UConn was having the worst offensive day in the history of the school and then somehow went 75 yards on 4 plays with less than 2 minutes left, and ended up losing 17-14.  They had a total of 57 yards of offense (net) before that drive.

  34. Yeah, so umm 2-0 now after a ludicrous back door cover by UConn.   UConn was having the worst offensive day in the history of the school and then somehow went 75 yards on 4 plays with less than 2 minutes left, and ended up losing 17-14.  They had a total of 57 yards of offense (net) before that drive.

    Haha, DoTB, your bet kept me watching that game. Incredible cover

  35. Yeah, so umm 2-0 now after a ludicrous back door cover by UConn.   UConn was having the worst offensive day in the history of the school and then somehow went 75 yards on 4 plays with less than 2 minutes left, and ended up losing 17-14.  They had a total of 57 yards of offense (net) before that drive.

    The Pic-6 at the end of the half was something to behold.

  36. Well, Wake Forest covers outright and wins against Army, but of course, UNC gets blown out by ECU, so I’m currently 3-1 on the teases, but I lost the first one already by going 2-1.  Still have San Diego and the Giants tomorrow.

  37. I ended up 5-1 on my Wong teasers, so I won one bet and lost the other.  Finished up .5 units in the end.  Not bad, but nothing to get really excited about.  JohnMd, I joined Fanduel a few weeks back because some of my friends are doing it, so it’s fun to do with a group like that, but the larger site-based leagues are just ok.  After a certain number of players, you basically have to have the perfect lineup to win, which is like playing the lottery, so you have to play the smaller number of player leagues, so the money is smaller.  I haven’t spent a whole lot of time researching it, but plan to put some effort into next week.

  38. So I bit the bullet and joined Draft Kings. I entered three contests. It looks like it could be fun but I am assuming I’m going to lose every lineup I enter. :)

     
    That overtime game versus Denver ended me. I lost in my 3 contests b/c of Harvin, Wilson, and especially Marshawn Lynch. If Denver misses the 2 point conversion, I go 3-0. Instead, it’s an 0-3.
     
    So, yeah, I hate Draft Kings already. :(

  39. Built teams around Brady and Aaron Rodgers yesterday so…yeah right there with you

     
    It’s fun, tho.
     
    I would like it better if you could just play the 1pm games. And then just play the 4pm games. The Sunday night game makes it a pain. I wish you could filter out those prime time games. Maybe you can but I couldn’t figure out a way to do that.

  40. I know you can do 4 PM and after and just the night games, not sure if you can do just 4PM games.  I’ll post if I figure that out because Id like that as well.

     
    Yes, I saw you could do the 4pm games WITH the prime time games OR only the prime time games, but I didn’t see a way to only play the 1pm games or the 4pm games. That would be cool, you could play some early games and chalk up some wins and losses.
     
    Having to wait until Monday at midnight kind of takes the fun out of it.

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