The NFL analytics community has known for a while that deep passing is more efficient than short passing. Dan Pizzuta wrote recently that “just under 18% of passes have traveled over 15 yards past the line of scrimmage and those attempts have made up for 133% of the league-wide passing EPA [Expected Points Added].” In…
When asked how much analytics informs the New England Patriots‘ decision-making in key situations, Bill Belichick answered simply, “less than zero.” This prompted several snide responses from the Twitter machine, such as: Obviously “less than zero” is a mathematical impossibility, and it’s hard to imagine that the famously thorough Belichick is utterly unfamiliar with the…
Since 2008, former NFL scout Dan Shonka of ourlads.com has been capturing “ball velocity” of quarterbacks throwing at the NFL combine, and posting it online. Some in the media have taken notice of the results and drawn conclusions from the historical data. “There has never been a QB who threw less than 54 mph with…
In case you took a vow to avoid all media as your New Years resolution you’ve already heard that Antonio Brown has been in the news lately. After a spat during practice with a teammate he decided not to show up for team activities during Week 17 and didn’t play in the final game versus…
In the aftermath of Monday night’s contest between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, several people have pointed out the outstanding numbers Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota compiled in a losing effort: Anyway you slice it, those numbers are crazy. While sports-analytics nerd (his words, not mine) Adam Steele pointed out that Adjusted Net Yards /…
With the new season upon us, what better time than now to talk about the playoffs? There are 31 fan bases across the country full of high hopes that their favorite team will make the playoffs. For New England fans, it’s become basically an annual occurrence, so they probably aren’t too concerned. Enjoy it while…
“Evolution is the fundamental idea in all of life science – in all of biology” – Bill Nye And especially in the game of football. Yet unlike nature, where changes can be gradual and take life cycles, evolution in football must be swift, must be effective, and preferably must be trailblazing lest ye be left…
Everything closes fast in the NFL. Pockets collapse, running lanes shrink and the window to win the Super Bowl can be wide open today and nailed shut tomorrow. A good quarterback improves those Super Bowl chances. He might help to give you a couple of windows instead of just one. Longevity with a team is…
In 1999, Paul DePodesta was hired by the Oakland Athletics as an assistant to the then GM Billy Beane. DePodesta, and his trusty sabermetrics, led the A’s to unprecedented success given their budgetary restrictions. Along with the help of a successful novel and film adaptation, Beane and DePodesta helped usher in an era of analytics…
Time. We’d all like more of it. I often find myself thinking ‘there aren’t enough hours in the day,’ and for most of us, this is true. We all want to do so much more with the time we have each day, week or month. When you have children, as I do, you want even…
“Daddy, where do fumbles come from?” Startled, I nearly spit out my coffee. “Well … when a mommy and daddy fumble love each other very much …” I stammered. He interrupted me, “Dad!” I fixed a sober gaze on my son. “Do you really want to know?” He nodded. “Sacks, mostly.” “What?” “Look at the…
This millennium, the New England Patriots’ defense has consistently ranked better by points allowed than it has by yards allowed. For many of those seasons, the difference in its rankings has been notably large. Such disparities have led announcers, fans, and analysts alike to conclude that the Patriots employ a “bend but don’t break”-style defense…
Past performance does not guarantee future results. It’s also extremely tough to compare NFL teams across seasons because each season is its own story. But in order to lend another layer of context to this weekend’s games, I took a look at each conference championship team since 2002 (the 32-team era) and compared them by…
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan are one of the best collections of quarterbacks to ever play in the Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs. There is no doubt. You have arguably the best signal-caller of all-time at the helm of the most successful franchise of the last 15 years, one…
On Saturday night in New York City, Baker Mayfield, DeShaun Watson, Jabrill Peppers, and Dede Westbrook will be present when the 82nd Heisman Trophy is awarded, but they will serve as nothing more than well-dressed, seat-fillers in what should be the long-awaited Lamar Jackson coronation ceremony. From the outset of the 2016 season, Jackson captivated…
If you’ve listened to the Pylon U podcast this season, you’ve probably heard me reference pythagorean expectation, or pythagorean win percentage, many times. Originally designed by Bill James as a way to calculate a baseball team’s projected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, the formula has been adapted for use in other…