Everything closes fast in the NFL. Pockets collapse, running lanes shrink and the window to win the Super Bowl can be wide open today and nailed shut tomorrow. A good quarterback improves those Super Bowl chances. He might help to give you a couple of windows instead of just one. Longevity with a team is…
In 1999, Paul DePodesta was hired by the Oakland Athletics as an assistant to the then GM Billy Beane. DePodesta, and his trusty sabermetrics, led the A’s to unprecedented success given their budgetary restrictions. Along with the help of a successful novel and film adaptation, Beane and DePodesta helped usher in an era of analytics…
Time. We’d all like more of it. I often find myself thinking ‘there aren’t enough hours in the day,’ and for most of us, this is true. We all want to do so much more with the time we have each day, week or month. When you have children, as I do, you want even…
“Daddy, where do fumbles come from?” Startled, I nearly spit out my coffee. “Well … when a mommy and daddy fumble love each other very much …” I stammered. He interrupted me, “Dad!” I fixed a sober gaze on my son. “Do you really want to know?” He nodded. “Sacks, mostly.” “What?” “Look at the…
This millennium, the New England Patriots’ defense has consistently ranked better by points allowed than it has by yards allowed. For many of those seasons, the difference in its rankings has been notably large. Such disparities have led announcers, fans, and analysts alike to conclude that the Patriots employ a “bend but don’t break”-style defense…
Past performance does not guarantee future results. It’s also extremely tough to compare NFL teams across seasons because each season is its own story. But in order to lend another layer of context to this weekend’s games, I took a look at each conference championship team since 2002 (the 32-team era) and compared them by…
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan are one of the best collections of quarterbacks to ever play in the Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs. There is no doubt. You have arguably the best signal-caller of all-time at the helm of the most successful franchise of the last 15 years, one…
On Saturday night in New York City, Baker Mayfield, DeShaun Watson, Jabrill Peppers, and Dede Westbrook will be present when the 82nd Heisman Trophy is awarded, but they will serve as nothing more than well-dressed, seat-fillers in what should be the long-awaited Lamar Jackson coronation ceremony. From the outset of the 2016 season, Jackson captivated…
If you’ve listened to the Pylon U podcast this season, you’ve probably heard me reference pythagorean expectation, or pythagorean win percentage, many times. Originally designed by Bill James as a way to calculate a baseball team’s projected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, the formula has been adapted for use in other…
We’re headed down the home stretch of the college football season which means most of the attention during the next week will be centered on how to assess which four teams in the nation are the best and will ultimately meet in the College Football Playoff. When the Selection Committee makes their announcement on Sunday,…
All production is good and all sacks are good. I’m not here to debate that. From a team or fan perspective, an 8-second hustle sack is just as valuable as DeMarcus Ware bending the edge in a ridiculous show of athleticism. But while the box score stat has consistent value on the field, it can…
Two point conversions are a rare play even with the longer extra point attempts, but when they are run, who are the most successful teams at converting them? Dave Archibald looks at a clever two point conversion by the Saints before analyzing broader trends of two point conversions in the NFL. New Orleans Saints head coach Sean…
Trading for players when desperate never yields the best value. But after Teddy Bridgewater‘s season ended with a knee injury, the Vikings needed an answer at quarterback. Ethan Young analyzes the Sam Bradford trade using his innovative player evaluation model. In wake of the Teddy Bridgewater injury, the Minnesota Vikings have struck a deal with…
Love or hate the draft, you know you want your team to draft well or it will face the consequences of drafting the wrong players. To that end, Ethan Young seeks to apply his innovative player evaluation model to college conferences themselves to see which conferences consistently produce the best NFL talent. As I mentioned in the original…
One of the most important factors to winning games is pressuring the opposing quarterback and totaling up sacks. Ethan Young has developed a formula, drawing on data from 2009 to 2015, for accurately predicting future sacks totals, to see which players are expected to increase their sack totals, and which players we can expect to see a decrease…
Quarterbacks. Everyone wants to draft a young great one, but nobody’s really sure who to take, or even what can be taught and what’s inherent in the player. Dave “Archie” Archibald sorts through the most heralded QBs of the 2014 draft to see who was worth the investment. Johnny Manziel continues to draw headlines for his off-the-field…