This millennium, the New England Patriots’ defense has consistently ranked better by points allowed than it has by yards allowed. For many of those seasons, the difference in its rankings has been notably large. Such disparities have led announcers, fans, and analysts alike to conclude that the Patriots employ a “bend but don’t break”-style defense…
Past performance does not guarantee future results. It’s also extremely tough to compare NFL teams across seasons because each season is its own story. But in order to lend another layer of context to this weekend’s games, I took a look at each conference championship team since 2002 (the 32-team era) and compared them by…
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan are one of the best collections of quarterbacks to ever play in the Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs. There is no doubt. You have arguably the best signal-caller of all-time at the helm of the most successful franchise of the last 15 years, one…
On Saturday night in New York City, Baker Mayfield, DeShaun Watson, Jabrill Peppers, and Dede Westbrook will be present when the 82nd Heisman Trophy is awarded, but they will serve as nothing more than well-dressed, seat-fillers in what should be the long-awaited Lamar Jackson coronation ceremony. From the outset of the 2016 season, Jackson captivated…
If you’ve listened to the Pylon U podcast this season, you’ve probably heard me reference pythagorean expectation, or pythagorean win percentage, many times. Originally designed by Bill James as a way to calculate a baseball team’s projected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, the formula has been adapted for use in other…
We’re headed down the home stretch of the college football season which means most of the attention during the next week will be centered on how to assess which four teams in the nation are the best and will ultimately meet in the College Football Playoff. When the Selection Committee makes their announcement on Sunday,…
All production is good and all sacks are good. I’m not here to debate that. From a team or fan perspective, an 8-second hustle sack is just as valuable as DeMarcus Ware bending the edge in a ridiculous show of athleticism. But while the box score stat has consistent value on the field, it can…
Two point conversions are a rare play even with the longer extra point attempts, but when they are run, who are the most successful teams at converting them? Dave Archibald looks at a clever two point conversion by the Saints before analyzing broader trends of two point conversions in the NFL. New Orleans Saints head coach Sean…
Trading for players when desperate never yields the best value. But after Teddy Bridgewater‘s season ended with a knee injury, the Vikings needed an answer at quarterback. Ethan Young analyzes the Sam Bradford trade using his innovative player evaluation model. In wake of the Teddy Bridgewater injury, the Minnesota Vikings have struck a deal with…
Love or hate the draft, you know you want your team to draft well or it will face the consequences of drafting the wrong players. To that end, Ethan Young seeks to apply his innovative player evaluation model to college conferences themselves to see which conferences consistently produce the best NFL talent. As I mentioned in the original…
One of the most important factors to winning games is pressuring the opposing quarterback and totaling up sacks. Ethan Young has developed a formula, drawing on data from 2009 to 2015, for accurately predicting future sacks totals, to see which players are expected to increase their sack totals, and which players we can expect to see a decrease…
Quarterbacks. Everyone wants to draft a young great one, but nobody’s really sure who to take, or even what can be taught and what’s inherent in the player. Dave “Archie” Archibald sorts through the most heralded QBs of the 2014 draft to see who was worth the investment. Johnny Manziel continues to draw headlines for his off-the-field…
Front offices have been trying to perfect draft and player evaluation for years in order to figure out how to get an upper hand on draft selections and draft trades. But the methods used for evaluation are outdated at best. Ethan Young has come up with a new model called Modified Approximate Value Evaluation Model…
Dave Archibald examines how running back usage has changed as offenses have started to throw the ball with higher frequency, which impacts how fantasy football players optimize their draft strategies and structure their teams. However, not all teams use their running backs equally. Dave’s analysis helps identify which teams give more carries to single backs and which teams…
With the 2nd round selection of Roberto Aguayo, a hot topic around NFL Draft media has been whether drafting a kicker early is worth the cost, and even whether drafting one at all is a good idea. Ethan Young turns to the data from 2005-2015 to see if drafting kickers and punter in the draft is…
The NFL doesn’t announce the league’s Most Valuable Player award until Saturday night, but there is little suspense as to whose name will be called: Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. Dave Archibald digs into the data, looking for the real NFL MVP. Few expected big things out of Carolina after it lost top receiving threat…